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Topic: **Case switch****Question:**
I would like to know exastly how she wound up winning 750,000 as it looked like she wasnt going to win that much. someone said something about that she was given option to switch one case? What was that all about? please decribe in DETAIL what happened? Best answer wins 10 points!

June 16, 2019 / By Shaniqua

She was playing for a top prize of 6 million dollars. Her last two cases were 1 million and 750 000 dollars. When you are down to the last two cases they give you the option to keep your case or switch cases. She chose to keep her case and her case had 750 000 dollars. If she had taken the deal she would have actually gotten something like 850 000 dollars but she said no deal and went for her case. I saw it twice.

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She was playing for a top prize of 6 million dollars. Her last two cases were 1 million and 750 000 dollars. When you are down to the last two cases they give you the option to keep your case or switch cases. She chose to keep her case and her case had 750 000 dollars. If she had taken the deal she would have actually gotten something like 850 000 dollars but she said no deal and went for her case. I saw it twice.

Ha! I've watched that ghastly program just to find out the exact same thing. Though I do not have a firm answer for you, my watching the show gave me a feeling that the given deal is not of strict statistical nature, but is influenced by the show's need to get a winner or avoid a winner. This of course goes up and down with the time since they had a high winner last. It would also go up and down depending on how contestant comes across to the audience. I've done some statistics on a local version of a show based on knowledge, and lo and behold, the contestants that have a ghastly lack of audience skils always get questions I find way harder to answer myself. Chance? Hardly! As you of course know, the statistical element in this is rather basic: what is the expected (as in chance) outcome given the numbers that are left. You could write your algorithm in an extremely simple form, f.x. with an average of the amounts left, minus some dollars for punishment, and your show would technically work. Work well even. You could better the program by brute force calculations on the possible ways to continue. In case, better avoid brute force during early rounds, as it doesn't add anything worthwhile in that phase and just makes your cpu hotter. BUT, I'd also enter some psychology for balancing things out a little, like: - What is the chance that contestant will continue if only one high amount and three low amounts are left? - What deal can we offer to augment the chance that contestant wil continue? (after all, continuing contestants is what attracts audiences and ads.) Good luck! *** EDIT *** EDIT *** BTW, in our local show, I've noticed the bank is not impressed by the two highest amounts still being left, but is extremely willing to give a good deal if three high amounts are left. Only logical, but I thought you might like to know.

I saw a special report of Deal Or No Deal on CNBC. According to Howie, there is a formula but the banker has latitude in deciding the amount based on the contestant's past reactions. Any formulaic approach would therefore be an approximation.

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